NBA: Phoenix hopes to stay alive

For the Phoenix Suns, Tuesday’s night Game 5 against San Antonio is a must-win.

2008-04-29

For the Phoenix Suns, Tuesday’s night Game 5 against San Antonio is a must-win. The Spurs, who get their second straight chance to finish off the Suns, are treating it that way, too. The hosts are a 5-point favorite, and nearly 60% of bettors think the series will end tonight.

Even though the defending champions have a 3-1 series lead, they want to wrap it quickly and avoid a return trip to Phoenix. The Suns denied the Spurs what would have been a surprising sweep in four games with an energetic and convincing 105-86 rout at home in Game 4 this past Sunday as 3.5-point favorites. They’ve extended their postseason at least one more game and plan to come to San Antonio with the same focus that sparked Boris Diaw’s near triple-double and Raja Bell’s 27 points.

San Antonio has other ideas and will seek to improve upon 26-10 ATS record in home games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. “We know that winning a Game 6 there is going to be really tough. If we don’t, then Game 7 we know is a lottery,” Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said. “We don’t even have to think that there’s a Game 6 or Game 7. We have to take (Game 5) as a Game 7. We know we have a great opportunity at home.” Coach Greg Popovich will be demanding a stronger defensive effort and has received it before, as evidenced by 9-2 ATS record after a game forcing opponent to commit eight or less turnovers.

The Suns players and the Phoenix media continue to harp on the fact, IF they had won opening game of the series, they’d be tied at 2-2. Somewhere in this convoluted logic, the building desert heat has altered their thought process. In the first two games, Phoenix built double-digit lead in the first half, only to give them away and allow the Spurs to rally. “In our minds, we feel the series should be 2-2,” Suns big man Shaquille O’Neal said. “We let the first one slip away.”

At least coach Mike D’Antoni has a realistic approach. “We’re down 3-1, we know we’ve got a long road to go, but we don’t think about the series, we think about Tuesday,” D’Antoni said. “We can win Tuesday. That’s the only thing we’re thinking about. That’s definitely a possibility and that’s what we want to make a reality.” The reality is Phoenix is 2-7 ATS in Game 5’s the last five seasons.

As the series shifts to San Antonio, any shred of momentum they gained in Game 4 will be tested. But the Suns say their confidence is up. “If we play as well as we did yesterday, we’ll win, and that’s all that we’re focusing on,” D’Antoni said.

D’Antoni said Diaw will start Game 5 in place of Grant Hill, who didn’t play Sunday and may sit out Tuesday because of a sore right groin. “I don’t think we’re there. I don’t think he can play,” D’Antoni said. “We’ll see. It will always be an open possibility. Boris will start and we’ll see from there.”

Diaw started on Sunday and it seemed to work just fine. He made life hard on Spurs point guard and fellow Frenchman Tony Parker, who shot 7-of-17 from the field for 18 points. The 6-foot-8 Diaw also scored 20 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and dished out eight assists.

“He’s a great player, he’s a tough cover, he’s got a lot of different skills at his height,” said coach Popovich. “He’s just a fine player and Mike knows how to use him. He was a big problem for us.”

While the Suns like their chances, history doesn’t bode well for them. No NBA team has come back from 0-3 to win a series in 83 previous attempts. Are these Suns the ones? This series was billed as the first-round matchup to watch, with plenty of predictions that it would run the full seven games. “We’re just excited to be alive still. After being 3-0, it’s nice to feel like we have a little life,” Suns point guard Steve Nash said.

After rolling over the Suns in Game 3 and looking like they were on their way to a sweep, the Spurs said that they played a little too “relaxed” in Game 4. Coupled with the Suns’ explosiveness, Game 4 was decided early for Phoenix, with Popovich pulling his stars late in the third quarter.

Popovich said the team focused on watching film on Monday. “In general they played a great game,” Popovich said. “They had an edge, they were physical. They executed well, they did most things better than we did. ”Now, Ginobili said, the Spurs must take care of business at home, where they lost just seven games all season. “We stopped doing the things that gave us results,” Ginobili said. “We let them loose and that’s the worst thing you can do against Phoenix.” San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in last eight home games.

San Antonio has opened as five point favorite, the largest of the series at Sportsbook.com with total 197.5. The Spurs are 18-8 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent, winning by just over a dozen points per game. The Suns situation isn’t completely bleak with 7-3 ATS mark in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. Phoenix will look to push the tempo again and is 15-5 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons.

Bruce Bowen knows the energy level must change for the Spurs to avoid the same fate as last contest. “We were embarrassed as well. Part of it is the fact that as basketball players, the last thing you want to do is not give a great effort,” Bowen said. “We have to come out with a better effort than we did last game.”

TNT will have this contest starting at 9:30 Eastern.

StatFox Power Line – San Antonio by 1

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